The hottest short-term key configuration is steel.

2022-08-26
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After the short-term key allocation of steel Festival, attention was paid to electrolytic aluminum

the US index stabilized and the RMB strengthened, driving the rise of nonferrous steel: the US dollar index was mixed this week, but the trend of the whole week was still volatile and upward. Affected by the stabilization of the US index, the superposition of basic gold to prepare for corrosion resistance test is profit taking after the sharp rise and the seasonal weakening of demand. This week, basic metals and precious metals mainly fell, driving the collective weakness of A-share non-ferrous sector. At the same time, the continued strength of the RMB this week, on the one hand, stems from the continued weakness of the US dollar, on the other hand, the German central bank confirmed that the inclusion of the RMB in its foreign exchange reserves is also an important catalyst. Superimposed on its own fundamentals and industry profit catalysis, RMB pricing products such as steel remained strong, and the trend of the steel sector was slightly stronger. In addition, the short-term domestic macro liquidity may fluctuate, but there is no basis for comprehensive and continuous tightening. The targeted RRR reduction of Inclusive Finance will be fully implemented, and the liquidity before the holiday is still controllable

there is a general shortage of industrial metals, and there is a strong bullish atmosphere: according to the recent data of institutions and enterprises such as WBMs, ILZSG, insg, Mitsui, Alcoa, etc., in 2017, Yuegong avoided serious stress relaxation in the linear high molecular chain, and has actively deployed in the fields of nuclear medicine, new irradiation utilization and nuclear instrument equipment, which is a general shortage, and will continue until 2018; Under the expectation of shortage, international institutions are generally optimistic about the price of industrial metals in 2018. In terms of copper, the national copper Commission of Chile, Societe Generale and Barclays have all raised the estimated price of copper this year; Deutsche Bank raised the estimated prices of aluminum, nickel and tin; Mitsui raised the estimated price of zinc. From the perspective of a shares, we believe that the short-term opportunities for the steel sector are promising, electrolytic aluminum may have a greater opportunity after the Spring Festival, and the copper sector is promising throughout the year

in the short term, the stock replenishment of steel and the resonance of the annual report are being realized in succession. On Friday, the social inventory of major steel varieties increased by 418900 tons again, and the active stock replenishment may account for the majority. At present, the basis of spot steel has returned, and the spot rebar has fallen from a premium of nearly 1000 yuan to a discount of nearly 100 yuan. Traders have the power and conditions to replenish the stock, and the steel price has stopped falling and rebounded. Under the catalysis of the mentality of buying up or not buying down, it is expected that the passive accumulation of recent inventory will be fully converted to active replenishment. At the same time, Anshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. and San steel Co., Ltd. successively disclosed performance forecasts this week, and the high performance in the fourth quarter has been continuously verified. The stock replenishment and annual report resonance market will be realized and fully opened in succession

the electrolytic aluminum supply side policy is still heating up, and there may be greater opportunities for electrolytic aluminum after the festival. This week, the Ministry of industry and information technology announced the electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement plan, continued to strictly control the electrolytic aluminum capacity indicators and set the replacement deadline; At the same time, SASAC stated that it would continue to promote the non-ferrous metal industry to resolve excess capacity; Combined with the recent feedback from the central supervision group on the inadequate control of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong and Xinjiang; We believe that the reform policy of electrolytic aluminum supply side is still heating up. Product formula and R & D capacity are the guarantee for enterprises to maintain high profit margins. At the same time, under the notice of capacity replacement, industry mergers and acquisitions may increase

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