Property market cooling "cooling" upstream and downstream industries steel and cement market downturn
property market cooling "cooling" upstream and downstream industries steel and cement market downturn
China Construction machinery information
Guide: from a month on month perspective, some economists judge that economic growth has peaked, and the real estate market, which will slow down in the second half of the year, is transmitting the low temperature to steel, cement, home furnishing and other related industries. A series of economic data will be released in April this week. Due to the low base in the first half of last year, the industry
from a month on month perspective, some economists judged that economic growth has peaked and will decelerate in the second half of the year.
the sudden cooling of the real estate market is transmitting low temperatures to steel, cement, home furnishing and other related industries
a series of economic data will be released in April this week. Due to the low base in the first half of last year, the industry is generally optimistic about the data in April; However, from a month on month perspective, some economists believe that economic growth has peaked, and the economy will enter a deceleration channel in the second half of the year
steel prices, which have been rising all the way this year, began to turn downward. By the end of April, the price of major steel fell by hundreds of yuan, and steel stocks also fell steadily, mainly due to pessimism about demand
"this will directly lead to the decline of steel demand." Shenwenrong, chairman of Shagang Group, commented on the impact of the new housing policy on the steel industry, "and the impact is very large. The market in the second half of this year will be significantly lower than that in the first half."
in cement, home furnishing and other industries, the impact will lag behind. But the industry believes that it is only a few months' buffer period
steel: steel price and stock price react in advance
after the introduction of the new deal for a period of time, China's major steel research institutions have evaluated this. Some believe that we can provide you with relevant information about the new deal, which has little impact on the steel market, and even believe that curbing house prices is a beneficial factor in the steel market
but the industry is generally pessimistic. Shen Wenrong said, "if the new real estate deal continues, the next year will also have a great impact on steel." Shagang group led by Shen Wenrong mainly produces construction steel, and this round of real estate adjustment has the greatest impact on it
although the main product of TISCO group is stainless steel, this company also feels the pressure. Li Xiaobo, chairman of TISCO group, said, "the pressure of the new real estate policy on sales has begun to appear."
the figures behind the business community are also optimistic about the yield strength of steel bars. Li Guotuan, a researcher at the information center of Baosteel Research Institute, believes that from the perspective of urbanization, the medium - and long-term demand for steel will continue to grow. However, he believes that developers are unlikely to increase construction efforts in the short term when house prices have not yet significantly corrected
the real estate industry is the largest consumer industry in the downstream of China's steel industry, and its trend is also related to the development of many industries. Household appliances, machinery, automobiles, etc. have a high joint effect with real estate
according to the data of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, China produced 560 million tons of steel last year, of which 36.1% went to the housing engineering industry. "Therefore, with the increasingly widespread use of 3D printing in all walks of life in the real estate market, the downturn will hit the steel market demand from multiple levels." Zhang Ping, steel analyst of China United commerce industry, told this newspaper
in 2008, affected by the financial crisis, the real estate market fell into a downturn. In the fourth quarter of that year, China's iron and steel enterprises began to fall into the state of loss in the whole industry, and reduced production and stopped production on a large scale
Zhang Ping believes that after the lack of construction steel consumption, the focus of steel consumption will inevitably shift to industrial steel consumption. However, due to the gradual decline in domestic demand, the main driving force of industrial steel consumption has become export, and the export situation remains to be further observed
cement: overcapacity worsens.
in the real estate industry, cement is also an important building material in addition to steel
"the new real estate policy will definitely have an impact on the cement industry. We estimate that the demand may decline by 5% to 10% Zhang Jianxing, executive vice president of China Building Materials Group's South Cement Co., Ltd., said in an interview with this newspaper yesterday
however, Zhang Jianxing believes that since real estate developers will continue to carry out construction in a short time, the response of the new real estate deal is not obvious at present, and it will take 3-5 months to show up
the decline in demand has caused great pressure on the cement industry, which is already surplus. Last year, China's cement output was 1.63 billion tons, an increase of 17.9% year-on-year. Cement is a major overcapacity industry named by the State Council for many times. According to the statistics of the Ministry of industry and information technology, at present, China's cement production capacity has reached 1.96 billion tons, while more than 400 cement production lines are under construction, and the new production capacity will exceed 600 million tons
although the cement industry will insert the test piece into the collet and then clamp it to impact, in Zhang Jianxing's view, the impact on the steel industry will be significantly greater than that of the cement industry, because the proportion of real estate in the cement industry is less important than that of the steel industry
Tianxiang investment analysts believe that this year's cement demand may face the dual impact of short-term real estate adjustment and the decline in the growth rate of fixed asset investment caused by the withdrawal of long-term economic stimulus policies. However, considering that the early construction projects have entered the peak construction period, they are cautiously optimistic about the national cement demand in 2010
in the view of Tianxiang investment analysts, the impact of real estate regulation policies on cement enterprises in different regions is different. In the eastern region, real estate investment accounts for a high proportion of fixed asset investment, especially in first tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. However, in the central and western regions, the proportion of real estate investment in fixed asset investment is less than 25%, which is expected to be less impacted by the real estate regulation policies
plan ahead. "Next, we will speed up the development of downstream areas, such as undertaking national key projects and striving for the market of housing projects, low rent housing and new rural construction." Zhang Jianxing said
home furnishing: after twoorthree months, it will be regulated by the "Zhulian"
real estate market, which also makes the home furnishing industry unhappy
last night, Ding zuohong, chairman of the furniture decoration industry chamber of Commerce of the all China Federation of industry and Commerce and chairman of Yuexing group, said in an interview with this newspaper that the current real estate market policy is under unprecedented pressure, and the weak sales of real estate in the upstream will directly affect the furniture, building materials and decoration industry in the downstream. The decline in housing turnover has led to a sharp decline in the total amount of decoratable area, and home market sales expectations will also be frustrated
as the chairman of a large-scale home chain store, Ding zuohong told this newspaper that there will be a lag of 2-3 months in the subdivided home industry, including furniture industry, home textile industry, tableware industry, decoration industry, decoration industry, etc
Lishe is an agent company of European and American imported advanced kitchen and bathroom furniture from Taiwan. The manager of the marketing department of Lishe Shanghai company told that under normal circumstances, buying a house and decoration are not carried out at the same time, so the response of the household industry to the changes in property market policies lags behind the real estate industry. In this lag period, household enterprises can appropriately adjust their short-term marketing strategies to minimize the negative impact of the policy
in addition, Ding zuohong also believes that the current Chinese household chain store industry has a systematic risk of excess store area and vicious competition upgrading. In the face of this property market regulation, the more radical home shopping malls in the early stage may bear greater pressure in terms of cash flow, profit contribution and so on